Last updated: 2020-09-26-09:30 Melbourne time
Updates daily at 9:15 AM AEST

The road to a COVID-free Victoria

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Victoria is in a fairly strict lockdown, and is aiming to have no local spread of the virus. If they succeed, it could mean Australia will be COVID free.

How have Victoria's restrictions affected the spread of the virus? Can we expect the virus to be eliminated in Victoria? If so, when? The below plot shows how the effective reproduction number of the virus, Reff has changed over time in Victoria, as well as how the daily cases have changed over time, with a projection based on the current estimate of Reff.

Is Victoria on track to meet its targets for easing restrictions in Melbourne? The below plot shows the 14-day average of daily cases, and the targets required to move to each step. The requirement to move to the last step is zero cases for 14 days, which can't be shown on the plot. The projected 14-day average is based on the projected case numbers as in the above plot. Targets for numbers of mystery cases are not shown.

Disclaimer

These projections are simple extrapolations of what will happen if Reff remains at its current value. This does not take into account that things may change. As restrictions are lifted, the virus may have more opportunities to spread and so Reff may increase. On the other hand as case numbers decrease and clusters are better tracked via contact tracing, Reff may decrease. Finally, as case numbers get low, the random chance of how many people each infected person subsequently infects will become more important, and calculating a state-wide average of this (the definition of Reff) will not be particularly meaningful or useful for prediction. As such the projections should be taken with a grain of salt—they are merely an indication of the trend as it is right now.

Methodology

Source for case numbers: https://www.dhhs.vic.gov.au/victorian-coronavirus-covid-19-data and covidlive.com.au

Plot/analysis by Chris Billington. Contact: chrisjbillington@gmail.com

Python script for producing the plot can be found at https://github.com/chrisjbillington/chrisjbillington.github.io/blob/master/victoria.py.