Australian COVID-19 vaccination rollout
Last updated: 2021-05-16-13:08 Melbourne time
Daily doses by administration channel
Below is a plot of 7-day average of daily vaccine doses administered in Australia by administration channel, showing the daily number of doses administered by state vaccination clinics, and by GPs and in federally operated aged and disability care. The 7-day average is further smoothed to remove day-to-day random fluctuations using Gaussian smoothing with σ=1 days.
Projected doses are based on expected supply smoothed over several weeks after supply becomes available, the asumption that second doses are reserved and administered on time as described in the Estimated utilisation section, and allowing for 10% wastage.
Data note: 80,560 GP-administered doses were reported on April 19th that were administered "prior to April 17". These have been incorporated into the data by spreading them over the period from March 22nd (start of phase 1b) to April 16th in proportion to the daily rate of GP-adminsitered doses on each day.
Below is a simple plot of cumulative doses in Australia over time by administration channel, showing the cumulative number of doses administered by state vaccination clinics, and by GPs and in federally operated aged and disability care. Australia aims to vaccinate all 20M adults (requiring 40M doses) by the end of 2021.
Projected doses are based on expected supply smoothed over several weeks after supply becomes available, the assumption that second doses are reserved and administered on time as described in the Estimated utilisation section, and allowing for 10% wastage.
Below is a possible scenario for the vaccination program over the course of the year. This assumes that we keep up with supply, administering doses in the weeks following them becoming available until 20M people have been vaccinated, with a maximum of 8M people receiving the AstraZeneca vaccine.
This assumes second doses are reserved and administered on time as described in the Estimated utilisation section, and allows for 10% wastage.
Expected supply of the Pfizer vaccine (based on comments from Greg Hunt here and here) is 350k doses per week until July, then 700k per week until October, and then 2.18M per week until the end of the year for a total of 40M doses in 2021.
Below is a plot of the estimated status of each vaccine dose in Australia. How many doses are in people's arms, in reserve, or available? This helps show whether administration of doses is keeping up with supply. Since the government has not published data to determine this exactly, this estimate is based on a number of assumptions:
- That the number of Pfizer and AstraZeneca first doses administered on a given day is in proportion to the number of available doses of each type of vaccine on that day.
- That 50% of Pfizer supply is held in reserve for second doses, administered exactly 3 weeks after the first dose.
- Prior to mid-April, that 50% of AstraZeneca supply is held in reserve for second doses. After mid-April (when the government became confident enough in local supply to maintain a smaller reserve), that a reserve is maintained with a number of doses equal to half of all outstanding second doses. These second doses are administered exactly 12 weeks after the first dose.
- That doses becoming available in a given week (supply data is only available at the 1-week level) become available at the end of that week.
- That 10% of doses are wasted.
Estimated utilisation by vaccine type
Below is the same utilisation estimates as in the above plot, but separated by vaccine type: AstraZeneca vs Pfizer.
Source for vaccine supply and expected supply: covid19data.com.au
Source for dose numbers: covidlive.com.au
Plots by Chris Billington. Contact: chrisjbillington [at] gmail [dot] com
Python script for producing the plots is available on GitHub.