Australian COVID-19 vaccination rollout
Last updated: 2021-06-23-20:21 Melbourne time
Daily doses by administration channel
Below is a plot of 7-day average of daily vaccine doses administered in Australia by administration channel, showing the daily number of doses administered by state vaccination clinics, and by GPs and in federally operated aged and disability care. The 7-day average is further smoothed to remove day-to-day random fluctuations using Gaussian smoothing with σ=1 days.
Projected doses are based on expected supply smoothed over several weeks after supply becomes available, the asumption that second doses are reserved and administered on time as described in the Estimated utilisation section, and allowing for 12.5% wastage.
Data note 1: 80,560 GP-administered doses were reported on April 19th that were administered "prior to April 17". These have been incorporated into the data by spreading them over the period from March 22nd (start of phase 1b) to April 16th in proportion to the daily rate of GP-adminsitered doses on each day.
Data note 2: A correction to of -9,260 doses to VIC's state-clinic numbers was made on May 25th. These have been incorporated into the data by spreading them over the period from March 22nd (start of phase 1b) to April May 23rd in proportion to the daily rate of VIC state-clinic-adminsitered doses on each day.
Daily doses by weekday
Below is a plot of national daily doses by weekday, for the past five weeks. No averaging or smoothing has been done.
Below is a simple plot of cumulative doses in Australia over time by administration channel, showing the cumulative number of doses administered by state vaccination clinics, and by GPs and in federally operated aged and disability care. Australia aims to vaccinate all 20M adults (requiring 40M doses) by the end of 2021.
Projected doses are based on expected supply smoothed over several weeks after supply becomes available, the assumption that second doses are reserved and administered on time as described in the Estimated utilisation section, and allowing for 12.5% wastage.
Below is a possible scenario for the vaccination program over the course of the year. This assumes that we keep up with supply, administering doses in the weeks following them becoming available until 20M people have been vaccinated, with a maximum of 5.35M people receiving the AstraZeneca vaccine.
This assumes second doses are reserved and administered on time as described in the Estimated utilisation section, and allows for 12.5% wastage.
Approximate expected supply of mRNA vaccines (based on the federal allocation horizons document here) is 700k Pfizer per week starting in July, then 1M Pfizer plus 110k Moderna per week starting in September, then 2M Pfizer plus 520k Moderna per week starting in October.
Expected supply of the AstraZeneca vaccine is 1M doses per week, which is the current rate of local production
Below is a plot of the estimated status of each vaccine dose in Australia. How many doses are in people's arms, in reserve, or available? This helps show whether administration of doses is keeping up with supply. Since the government has not published data to determine this exactly, this estimate is based on a number of assumptions:
- That the number of Pfizer/Moderna and AstraZeneca first doses administered on a given day is in proportion to the number of available doses of each type of vaccine on that day.
- That 50% of Pfizer/Moderna supply is held in reserve for second doses, administered exactly 25 weeks after the first dose (Pfizer should be 21 days and Moderna 28m, but I'm treating them the same for simplicity).
- Prior to mid-April, that 50% of AstraZeneca supply is held in reserve for second doses. After mid-April (when the government became confident enough in local supply to maintain a smaller reserve), that a reserve is maintained with a number of doses equal two thirds of all outstanding second doses. These second doses are administered exactly 12 weeks after the first dose.
- That doses becoming available in a given week (supply data is only available at the 1-week level) become available at the end of that week.
- That 12.5% of doses are wasted.
Estimated utilisation by vaccine type
Below is the same utilisation estimates as in the above plot, but separated by vaccine type: AstraZeneca vs Pfizer/Moderna (which are lumped together).
Source for vaccine supply and expected supply: covid19data.com.au
Source for dose numbers: covidlive.com.au
Plots by Chris Billington. Contact: chrisjbillington [at] gmail [dot] com
Python script for producing the plots is available on GitHub.