Australian COVID-19 vaccination rollout

Last updated: 2021-07-30-15:22 Melbourne time

See also: Progression of the Bondi COVID outbreak in New South Wales

Contents

  • Daily doses by administration channel
  • Daily doses by weekday
  • Cumulative doses
  • First and second dose coverage by age group
  • Longer-term projections
  • Estimated utilisation
  • Estimated utilisation by vaccine type
  • Data sources and contact
  • Daily doses by administration channel

    Below is a plot of 7-day average of daily vaccine doses administered in Australia by administration channel, showing the daily number of doses administered by state vaccination clinics, and by GPs and in federally operated aged and disability care. The 7-day average is further smoothed to remove day-to-day random fluctuations using Gaussian smoothing with σ=1 days.

    Projected doses are based on expected supply smoothed over several weeks after supply becomes available, the asumption that second doses are reserved and administered on time as described in the Estimated utilisation section, and allowing for 12.5% wastage.

    Data note 1: 80,560 GP-administered doses were reported on April 19th that were administered "prior to April 17". These have been incorporated into the data by spreading them over the period from March 22nd (start of phase 1b) to April 16th in proportion to the daily rate of GP-adminsitered doses on each day.

    Data note 2: A correction to of -9,260 doses to VIC's state-clinic numbers was made on May 25th. These have been incorporated into the data by spreading them over the period from March 22nd (start of phase 1b) to April May 23rd in proportion to the daily rate of VIC state-clinic-adminsitered doses on each day.

    Daily doses by weekday

    Below is a plot of national daily doses by weekday, for the past five weeks. No averaging or smoothing has been done.

    Cumulative doses

    Below is a simple plot of cumulative doses in Australia over time by administration channel, showing the cumulative number of doses administered by state vaccination clinics, and by GPs and in federally operated aged and disability care. Australia aims to vaccinate all eligible people with at least one dose by the end of 2021.

    Projected doses are based on expected supply smoothed over several weeks after supply becomes available, the assumption that second doses are reserved and administered on time as described in the Estimated utilisation section, and allowing for 12.5% wastage.

    First and second dose coverage by age group

    Below are plots of the percentage of each 10-year age group that has had a first and second administered, as well as the weekly rate of uptake as a percentage of each age group. Note that first dose data by age group is only available from May 9th, and second dose data from June 30th.

    Longer-term projections

    Below is a possible scenario for the vaccination program over the course of the year. This assumes that we keep up with supply, administering doses in the weeks following them becoming available, up until 21.85M people (the number of people in Australia aged 12+) have been vaccinated, with a maximum of 7.55M people receiving the AstraZeneca vaccine.

    This assumes second doses are reserved and administered on time as described in the Estimated utilisation section, and allows for 12.5% wastage.

    Approximate expected supply of mRNA vaccines (based on the federal allocation horizons document here, as well as other comments made in press conference) is 300k, 500k, 1M, 1M Pfizer in the weeks of July, then 1125k per week in August, then 1M Pfizer plus 110k Moderna per week in September, then 2M Pfizer plus 520k Moderna per week starting in October.

    Expected supply of the AstraZeneca vaccine is 1M doses per week, which is the current rate of local production




    Estimated utilisation

    Below is a plot of the estimated status of each vaccine dose in Australia. How many doses are in people's arms, in reserve, or available? This helps show whether administration of doses is keeping up with supply. Since the government has not published data to determine this exactly, this estimate is based on a number of assumptions:

    Estimated utilisation by vaccine type

    Below is the same utilisation estimates as in the above plot, but separated by vaccine type: AstraZeneca vs Pfizer/Moderna (which are lumped together).


    Data sources and contact

    Source for vaccine supply and expected supply: covid19data.com.au

    Source for daily/cumulative dose numbers: covidlive.com.au.

    Source for first doses by age group prior to June 30th: Department of Health, data extracted from government materials by covidbaseau.com.

    Source for first and second doses by age group from June 30th: Department of Health, data extracted from government materials by Ken Tsang

    Population data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics Estimated Resident Population, June 2020

    Plots and analysis by Chris Billington. Contact: chrisjbillington [at] gmail [dot] com

    Python script for producing the plots is available on GitHub.