Last updated: 2021-10-22 14:21 Melbourne time
Updates daily in the afternoon

Australian COVID-19 vaccination rollout

New: Progression of the COVID outbreak in New Zealand

New: Progression of the COVID outbreak in Victoria

New: Progression of the COVID outbreak in the Australian Capital Territory

See also: Progression of the COVID outbreak in New South Wales

See also: The road to a COVID-free Victoria (old 2020 second wave plots)

Contents

  • Daily doses by administration channel
  • Daily doses by weekday
  • Cumulative doses
  • First and second dose coverage by age group
  • First and second dose coverage by state/territory
  • First and second dose coverage by state/territory and age group
  • Longer-term projections
  • Estimated utilisation
  • Estimated utilisation by vaccine type
  • Data sources and contact
  • Daily doses by administration channel

    Below is a plot of 7-day average of daily vaccine doses administered in Australia by administration channel, showing the daily number of doses administered by state vaccination clinics, and by GPs and in federally operated aged and disability care. The 7-day average is further smoothed to remove day-to-day random fluctuations using Gaussian smoothing with σ=1 days.

    Projected doses are based on expected supply smoothed over several weeks after supply becomes available, the asumption that second doses are reserved and administered on time as described in the Estimated utilisation section, and allowing for 12.5% wastage of AZ and 5% wastage of Pfizer/Moderna.

    Data note 1: 80,560 GP-administered doses were reported on April 19th that were administered "prior to April 17". These have been incorporated into the data by spreading them over the period from March 22nd (start of phase 1b) to April 16th in proportion to the daily rate of GP-adminsitered doses on each day.

    Data note 2: A correction to of -9,260 doses to VIC's state-clinic numbers was made on May 25th. These have been incorporated into the data by spreading them over the period from March 22nd (start of phase 1b) to April May 23rd in proportion to the daily rate of VIC state-clinic-adminsitered doses on each day.

    Daily doses by weekday

    Below is a plot of national daily doses by weekday, for the past five weeks. No averaging or smoothing has been done.

    Cumulative doses

    Below is a simple plot of cumulative doses in Australia over time by administration channel, showing the cumulative number of doses administered by state vaccination clinics, and by GPs and in federally operated aged and disability care. Australia aims to vaccinate all eligible people with at least one dose by the end of 2021.

    Projected doses are based on expected supply smoothed over several weeks after supply becomes available, the assumption that second doses are reserved and administered on time as described in the Estimated utilisation section, and allowing for 12.5% wastage of AZ and 5% wastage of Pfizer/Moderna.

    First and second dose coverage by age group

    Below are plots of the percentage of each 10-year age group that has had a first and second administered, as well as the weekly rate of uptake as a percentage of each age group. Note that first dose data by age group is only available from May 9th, and second dose data from June 30th. The 12–15 and 16–19 age groups are kept separate rather than as a single 12–19 group, due to the 12–15 age group becoming eligible much later, making it more interesting to show as a separate group.

    First and second dose coverage by state/territory

    Below are plots of the percentage of the resident population aged 12+ in each state/territory that has had a first and second dose administered, as well as the weekly rate of uptake, as a percentage of each state/territory's age 12+ population. For a more detailed age breakdown, including 16+ coverage by state, see the next section.

    First and second dose coverage by state/territory and age group

    Below are plots of the percentage of the resident population in each state and territory that has had a first and second dose administered, by age group.

    Included are also projections of when various targets would be met, assuming the current seven-day average rate of first-doses, and the current average dosing interval in each state. These should be taken with a grain of salt, as the rate of first-doses, as well as the dosing intervals, may change.

    National

    
    Ages 16+
      86.2% first-dose coverage 💉
      71.7% second-dose coverage 💉💉
      0.30%/day first-dose rate
      0.76%/day second-dose rate
      33 days average dosing interval
      1st dose targets 💉 (@ current 1st dose rate)
        60%: ✅  September  1st (51 days ago)
        70%: ✅  September 16th (36 days ago)
        80%: ✅   October  5th (17 days ago)
        90%: November  3rd (12 days)
      2nd dose targets 💉💉 (@ current 1st dose rate + interval)
        60%: ✅   October  7th (15 days ago)
        70%: ✅   October 19th (3 days ago)
        80%: November  7th (16 days)
        90%: December  6th (45 days)
        
    
    Ages 12+
      85.0% first-dose coverage 💉
      69.4% second-dose coverage 💉💉
      0.33%/day first-dose rate
      0.82%/day second-dose rate
      32 days average dosing interval
      1st dose targets 💉 (@ current 1st dose rate)
        60%: ✅  September  6th (46 days ago)
        70%: ✅  September 21st (31 days ago)
        80%: ✅   October  8th (14 days ago)
        90%: November  6th (15 days)
      2nd dose targets 💉💉 (@ current 1st dose rate + interval)
        60%: ✅   October 11th (11 days ago)
        70%:  October 23rd (1 days)
        80%: November  9th (18 days)
        90%: December  8th (47 days)
        

    New South Wales

    
    Ages 16+
      92.8% first-dose coverage 💉
      83.7% second-dose coverage 💉💉
      0.17%/day first-dose rate
      0.70%/day second-dose rate
      30 days average dosing interval
      1st dose targets 💉 (@ current 1st dose rate)
        60%: ✅    August 23rd (60 days ago)
        70%: ✅  September  1st (51 days ago)
        80%: ✅  September 14th (38 days ago)
        90%: ✅   October  8th (14 days ago)
      2nd dose targets 💉💉 (@ current 1st dose rate + interval)
        60%: ✅  September 25th (27 days ago)
        70%: ✅   October  6th (16 days ago)
        80%: ✅   October 16th (6 days ago)
        90%: November  7th (16 days)
        
    
    Ages 12+
      91.9% first-dose coverage 💉
      81.6% second-dose coverage 💉💉
      0.19%/day first-dose rate
      0.80%/day second-dose rate
      29 days average dosing interval
      1st dose targets 💉 (@ current 1st dose rate)
        60%: ✅    August 26th (57 days ago)
        70%: ✅  September  6th (46 days ago)
        80%: ✅  September 21st (31 days ago)
        90%: ✅   October 13th (9 days ago)
      2nd dose targets 💉💉 (@ current 1st dose rate + interval)
        60%: ✅  September 29th (23 days ago)
        70%: ✅   October  9th (13 days ago)
        80%: ✅   October 19th (3 days ago)
        90%: November 11th (20 days)
        

    Victoria

    
    Ages 16+
      89.9% first-dose coverage 💉
      71.8% second-dose coverage 💉💉
      0.33%/day first-dose rate
      1.14%/day second-dose rate
      34 days average dosing interval
      1st dose targets 💉 (@ current 1st dose rate)
        60%: ✅  September  4th (48 days ago)
        70%: ✅  September 16th (36 days ago)
        80%: ✅  September 29th (23 days ago)
        90%:  October 22nd (0 days)
      2nd dose targets 💉💉 (@ current 1st dose rate + interval)
        60%: ✅   October 11th (11 days ago)
        70%: ✅   October 20th (2 days ago)
        80%: November  2nd (11 days)
        90%: November 25th (34 days)
        
    
    Ages 12+
      89.2% first-dose coverage 💉
      69.6% second-dose coverage 💉💉
      0.36%/day first-dose rate
      1.20%/day second-dose rate
      32 days average dosing interval
      1st dose targets 💉 (@ current 1st dose rate)
        60%: ✅  September  8th (44 days ago)
        70%: ✅  September 20th (32 days ago)
        80%: ✅   October  2nd (20 days ago)
        90%:  October 24th (2 days)
      2nd dose targets 💉💉 (@ current 1st dose rate + interval)
        60%: ✅   October 13th (9 days ago)
        70%:  October 22nd (0 days)
        80%: November  3rd (12 days)
        90%: November 25th (34 days)
        

    Queensland

    
    Ages 16+
      74.1% first-dose coverage 💉
      59.4% second-dose coverage 💉💉
      0.34%/day first-dose rate
      0.55%/day second-dose rate
      34 days average dosing interval
      1st dose targets 💉 (@ current 1st dose rate)
        60%: ✅  September 19th (33 days ago)
        70%: ✅   October 10th (12 days ago)
        80%: November  8th (17 days)
        90%: December  7th (46 days)
      2nd dose targets 💉💉 (@ current 1st dose rate + interval)
        60%:  October 23rd (1 days)
        70%: November 13th (22 days)
        80%: December 12th (51 days)
        90%:  January 10th (80 days)
        
    
    Ages 12+
      72.1% first-dose coverage 💉
      56.8% second-dose coverage 💉💉
      0.36%/day first-dose rate
      0.58%/day second-dose rate
      33 days average dosing interval
      1st dose targets 💉 (@ current 1st dose rate)
        60%: ✅  September 24th (28 days ago)
        70%: ✅   October 16th (6 days ago)
        80%: November 12th (21 days)
        90%: December 10th (49 days)
      2nd dose targets 💉💉 (@ current 1st dose rate + interval)
        60%:  October 27th (5 days)
        70%: November 18th (27 days)
        80%: December 15th (54 days)
        90%:  January 12th (82 days)
        

    Western Australia

    
    Ages 16+
      75.2% first-dose coverage 💉
      58.3% second-dose coverage 💉💉
      0.43%/day first-dose rate
      0.53%/day second-dose rate
      37 days average dosing interval
      1st dose targets 💉 (@ current 1st dose rate)
        60%: ✅  September 19th (33 days ago)
        70%: ✅   October 10th (12 days ago)
        80%: November  2nd (11 days)
        90%: November 25th (34 days)
      2nd dose targets 💉💉 (@ current 1st dose rate + interval)
        60%:  October 26th (4 days)
        70%: November 16th (25 days)
        80%: December  9th (48 days)
        90%:  January  1st (71 days)
        
    
    Ages 12+
      72.9% first-dose coverage 💉
      55.4% second-dose coverage 💉💉
      0.44%/day first-dose rate
      0.53%/day second-dose rate
      36 days average dosing interval
      1st dose targets 💉 (@ current 1st dose rate)
        60%: ✅  September 25th (27 days ago)
        70%: ✅   October 15th (7 days ago)
        80%: November  7th (16 days)
        90%: November 29th (38 days)
      2nd dose targets 💉💉 (@ current 1st dose rate + interval)
        60%:  October 31st (9 days)
        70%: November 20th (29 days)
        80%: December 13th (52 days)
        90%:  January  4th (74 days)
        

    South Australia

    
    Ages 16+
      78.2% first-dose coverage 💉
      61.3% second-dose coverage 💉💉
      0.44%/day first-dose rate
      0.53%/day second-dose rate
      36 days average dosing interval
      1st dose targets 💉 (@ current 1st dose rate)
        60%: ✅  September 14th (38 days ago)
        70%: ✅   October  5th (17 days ago)
        80%:  October 26th (4 days)
        90%: November 17th (26 days)
      2nd dose targets 💉💉 (@ current 1st dose rate + interval)
        60%: ✅   October 19th (3 days ago)
        70%: November 10th (19 days)
        80%: December  1st (40 days)
        90%: December 23rd (62 days)
        
    
    Ages 12+
      76.0% first-dose coverage 💉
      58.6% second-dose coverage 💉💉
      0.47%/day first-dose rate
      0.54%/day second-dose rate
      35 days average dosing interval
      1st dose targets 💉 (@ current 1st dose rate)
        60%: ✅  September 20th (32 days ago)
        70%: ✅   October  9th (13 days ago)
        80%:  October 30th (8 days)
        90%: November 20th (29 days)
      2nd dose targets 💉💉 (@ current 1st dose rate + interval)
        60%:  October 25th (3 days)
        70%: November 13th (22 days)
        80%: December  4th (43 days)
        90%: December 25th (64 days)
        

    Tasmania

    
    Ages 16+
      86.2% first-dose coverage 💉
      71.1% second-dose coverage 💉💉
      0.53%/day first-dose rate
      0.50%/day second-dose rate
      34 days average dosing interval
      1st dose targets 💉 (@ current 1st dose rate)
        60%: ✅    August 31st (52 days ago)
        70%: ✅  September 17th (35 days ago)
        80%: ✅   October 10th (12 days ago)
        90%:  October 29th (7 days)
      2nd dose targets 💉💉 (@ current 1st dose rate + interval)
        60%: ✅   October  3rd (19 days ago)
        70%: ✅   October 20th (2 days ago)
        80%: November 13th (22 days)
        90%: December  2nd (41 days)
        
    
    Ages 12+
      84.1% first-dose coverage 💉
      67.7% second-dose coverage 💉💉
      0.63%/day first-dose rate
      0.50%/day second-dose rate
      33 days average dosing interval
      1st dose targets 💉 (@ current 1st dose rate)
        60%: ✅  September  7th (45 days ago)
        70%: ✅  September 23rd (29 days ago)
        80%: ✅   October 15th (7 days ago)
        90%:  October 31st (9 days)
      2nd dose targets 💉💉 (@ current 1st dose rate + interval)
        60%: ✅   October  7th (15 days ago)
        70%:  October 26th (4 days)
        80%: November 17th (26 days)
        90%: December  3rd (42 days)
        

    Australian Capital Territory

    
    Ages 16+
      98.4% first-dose coverage 💉
      85.1% second-dose coverage 💉💉
      0.19%/day first-dose rate
      1.07%/day second-dose rate
      28 days average dosing interval
      1st dose targets 💉 (@ current 1st dose rate)
        60%: ✅    August 23rd (60 days ago)
        70%: ✅  September  6th (46 days ago)
        80%: ✅  September 18th (34 days ago)
        90%: ✅  September 29th (23 days ago)
      2nd dose targets 💉💉 (@ current 1st dose rate + interval)
        60%: ✅  September 24th (28 days ago)
        70%: ✅   October  7th (15 days ago)
        80%: ✅   October 17th (5 days ago)
        90%:  October 27th (5 days)
        
    
    Ages 12+
      98.3% first-dose coverage 💉
      83.0% second-dose coverage 💉💉
      0.21%/day first-dose rate
      1.21%/day second-dose rate
      27 days average dosing interval
      1st dose targets 💉 (@ current 1st dose rate)
        60%: ✅    August 27th (56 days ago)
        70%: ✅  September 11th (41 days ago)
        80%: ✅  September 22nd (30 days ago)
        90%: ✅   October  1st (21 days ago)
      2nd dose targets 💉💉 (@ current 1st dose rate + interval)
        60%: ✅  September 29th (23 days ago)
        70%: ✅   October 10th (12 days ago)
        80%: ✅   October 19th (3 days ago)
        90%:  October 28th (6 days)
        

    Northern Territory

    
    Ages 16+
      72.8% first-dose coverage 💉
      60.6% second-dose coverage 💉💉
      0.43%/day first-dose rate
      0.34%/day second-dose rate
      39 days average dosing interval
      1st dose targets 💉 (@ current 1st dose rate)
        60%: ✅  September 11th (41 days ago)
        70%: ✅   October 15th (7 days ago)
        80%: November  7th (16 days)
        90%: December  1st (40 days)
      2nd dose targets 💉💉 (@ current 1st dose rate + interval)
        60%: ✅   October 20th (2 days ago)
        70%: November 23rd (32 days)
        80%: December 16th (55 days)
        90%:  January  9th (79 days)
        
    
    Ages 12+
      71.2% first-dose coverage 💉
      58.4% second-dose coverage 💉💉
      0.48%/day first-dose rate
      0.36%/day second-dose rate
      37 days average dosing interval
      1st dose targets 💉 (@ current 1st dose rate)
        60%: ✅  September 18th (34 days ago)
        70%: ✅   October 20th (2 days ago)
        80%: November  9th (18 days)
        90%: November 30th (39 days)
      2nd dose targets 💉💉 (@ current 1st dose rate + interval)
        60%:  October 25th (3 days)
        70%: November 26th (35 days)
        80%: December 16th (55 days)
        90%:  January  6th (76 days)
        

    Longer-term projections

    Below is a possible scenario for the vaccination program over the course of the year. This assumes that we keep up with supply, administering doses in the weeks following them becoming available, up until 21.85M people (the number of people in Australia aged 12+) have been vaccinated, with a maximum of 7.55M people receiving the AstraZeneca vaccine.

    This assumes second doses are reserved and administered on time as described in the Estimated utilisation section, and allows for 12.5% wastage of AZ and 5% wastage of Pfizer/Moderna.

    Approximate expected supply of mRNA vaccines (based on the federal allocation horizons document here, as well as other comments made in press conference) is 1125k per week in August, then 1M Pfizer plus 200k Moderna per week in September, then 2M Pfizer plus 750k Moderna per week starting in October.

    Expected supply of the AstraZeneca vaccine is 1M doses per week.




    Note: The "Phase B" and "Phase C" lines in the above plot show the date when 70% and 80% of the eligible population (ages 12+) are projected to have received two doses. However, in the national plan, these targets are framed in terms of the 16+ population. Thus these projected dates assume that vaccination coverage in the 12–15 age group is similar at these points to that of the 16+ age group.

    Estimated utilisation

    Below is a plot of the estimated status of each vaccine dose in Australia. How many doses are in people's arms, in reserve, or available? This helps show whether administration of doses is keeping up with supply. Since the government has not published data to determine this exactly, this estimate is based on a number of assumptions:

    Estimated utilisation by vaccine type

    Below is the same utilisation estimates as in the above plot, but separated by vaccine type: AstraZeneca vs Pfizer/Moderna (which are lumped together).


    Data sources and contact

    Source for vaccine supply and expected supply: covid19data.com.au

    Source for daily/cumulative dose numbers: covidlive.com.au.

    Source for first doses by age group prior to June 30th: Department of Health, data extracted from government materials by covidbaseau.com.

    Source for first and second doses by age group from June 30th: Department of Health, data extracted from government materials by Ken Tsang

    Population data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics Estimated Resident Population, June 2020

    Plots and analysis by Chris Billington. Contact: chrisjbillington [at] gmail [dot] com

    Python script for producing the plots is available on GitHub.